Enter the team’s average goals scored per game, home field advantage factor, binary variable indicating home play, and the opponent’s average goals scored per game into the calculator to determine the win probability.

Football Win Probability Formula

The following formula is used to calculate the win probability in a football match. 

WP = (TGS + (HFA * H)) / (TGS + OGS)

Variables:

  • WP is the win probability (%)
  • TGS is the team’s average goals scored per game
  • HFA is the home field advantage factor (usually between 0.1 and 0.3)
  • H is a binary variable indicating whether the team is playing at home (1 if yes, 0 if no)
  • OGS is the opponent’s average goals scored per game

To calculate the win probability, add the team’s average goals scored per game to the product of the home field advantage factor and the binary variable indicating whether the team is playing at home. Divide this sum by the sum of the team’s average goals scored per game and the opponent’s average goals scored per game. The result is the win probability.

What is a Football Win Probability?

Football Win Probability is a statistical metric that calculates the likelihood of a team winning a game at any given point during the match. It takes into account various factors such as the score difference, time remaining, field position, down and distance, and historical data. This metric is dynamic and changes throughout the game as these factors change. It provides a quantitative measure of a team’s chances of winning, helping fans and analysts understand the flow of the game better.

How to Calculate Football Win Probability?

The following steps outline how to calculate the Football Win Probability using the given formula:

  1. First, determine the team’s average goals scored per game (TGS).
  2. Next, determine the home field advantage factor (HFA).
  3. Next, determine the binary variable indicating whether the team is playing at home (H).
  4. Next, determine the opponent’s average goals scored per game (OGS).
  5. Next, gather the formula from above = WP = (TGS + (HFA * H)) / (TGS + OGS).
  6. Finally, calculate the Football Win Probability.
  7. After inserting the variables and calculating the result, check your answer with the calculator above.

Example Problem:

Use the following variables as an example problem to test your knowledge:

Team’s average goals scored per game (TGS) = 2.5

Home field advantage factor (HFA) = 0.2

Binary variable indicating whether the team is playing at home (H) = 1

Opponent’s average goals scored per game (OGS) = 1.8