Use the calculator to (1) convert American moneyline betting odds to implied win probability (or vice versa), or (2) estimate home win/draw/away probabilities from expected goals (xG) using a Poisson model (soccer).

Football Win Probability Calculator

Odds Based
Expected Goals

Convert American moneyline betting odds to implied win probability or vice versa (this is the “fair” implied probability and does not remove sportsbook margin/vigorish).

Related Calculators

Football Win Probability Formula

The calculator above supports two common ways to estimate win probabilities: converting American moneyline odds to an implied probability, and estimating match result probabilities from expected goals (xG) using a Poisson scoring model (soccer).

\begin{aligned}
\textbf{American moneyline (ML) to probability (fraction):}\quad
p &=
\begin{cases}
\frac{100}{ML+100}, & ML>0\\
\frac{-ML}{-ML+100}, & ML<0
\end{cases}\\[6pt]
\textbf{Probability (fraction) to moneyline:}\quad
ML &=
\begin{cases}
-100\frac{p}{1-p}, & p>0.5\\
100\frac{1-p}{p}, & p\le 0.5
\end{cases}\\[10pt]
\textbf{xG (Poisson) model:}\quad \text{Poi}(k;\lambda) &= e^{-\lambda}\frac{\lambda^k}{k!}\\
P(\text{Home win}) &= \sum_{i>j}\text{Poi}(i;\lambda_H)\text{Poi}(j;\lambda_A)\\
P(\text{Draw}) &= \sum_{k}\text{Poi}(k;\lambda_H)\text{Poi}(k;\lambda_A)\\
P(\text{Away win}) &= \sum_{i<j}\text{Poi}(i;\lambda_H)\text{Poi}(j;\lambda_A)
\end{aligned}

Variables:

  • ML is the American moneyline odds (e.g., -150 or +200).
  • p is the implied win probability as a fraction between 0 and 1 (to convert to a percentage, use 100·p).
  • λH is the home team’s expected goals (xG) (soccer).
  • λA is the away team’s expected goals (xG) (soccer).
  • i, j, k are non‑negative integers representing the number of goals scored.

For odds, the calculator converts between American moneyline and the corresponding implied (“fair”) win probability. For xG, it assumes each team’s goals follow an independent Poisson distribution with means λH and λA, then sums the probabilities of all scorelines where the home team wins, draws, or loses (the calculator truncates the goal count at 10 and then normalizes).

What is a Football Win Probability?

Win probability is an estimate of the chance a team will win. It can be calculated pre-match (before the game starts) using information like betting odds or expected goals, or in-game using real-time context (e.g., score, time remaining, and other situational factors). This page’s calculator provides pre-match estimates based on either moneyline odds or expected goals (xG).

How to Calculate Football Win Probability?

The following steps outline how to calculate win probabilities using the calculator above:

  1. Select the method tab: Odds Based or Expected Goals.
  2. If using Odds Based, choose the conversion direction (moneyline → probability, or probability → moneyline).
  3. Enter either the moneyline odds (American) or the win probability (%), depending on the direction selected.
  4. Click Calculate to get the implied win probability or the equivalent moneyline odds.
  5. If using Expected Goals, enter the home team xG and away team xG (soccer).
  6. Click Calculate to get estimated Home Win, Draw, and Away Win percentages (Poisson model approximation).
  7. Use Reset to clear inputs/results, or compare your manual calculation against the calculator output.

Example Problem:

Use the following examples to test your understanding:

Example 1 (Odds Based): Moneyline Odds (ML) = -150

Implied Win Probability = 60.00%

Example 2 (Expected Goals): Home Team xG (λH) = 1.00

Away Team xG (λA) = 1.00 (Result: Home Win ≈ 34.6% | Draw ≈ 30.9% | Away Win ≈ 34.6%)