Convert a free bet or bonus bet to its expected cash value from the bet amount and decimal odds, using the odds-implied win chance or your own estimate.
Free Bet Conversion Formula and Method
Stake-not-returned win cash = credit × (decimal odds − 1)
This calculation is for promotional credit whose stake is not returned. A winning credit pays the profit portion of decimal odds, so a twenty-unit credit at 3.0 produces forty cash units rather than sixty. The losing cash return is zero under this model.
How to Use This Calculator
Choose a money unit, enter the free bet (stake-not-returned) amount and decimal odds, and optionally your own estimated win probability; left blank, the odds-implied probability (100 ÷ decimal odds) is used. Calculate to see the expected cash, individual winning and losing payouts, and calculation details. Money-unit selection labels the scenario; it does not convert currencies.
Worked Example
With the example inputs in the table, the result is 16 USD. The promotional credit itself is excluded from the winning cash return.
Expected cash = win cash × entered win probability
Input and Example Guide
| Input or category | Example or weight | Entry guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Money unit | U.S. dollars (USD) | Choose the convention that applies to your record. |
| Stake-not-returned credit (selected currency) | 20 | Use the stated unit; retain available precision. |
| Offered price (decimal odds) | 3 | Use the stated unit; retain available precision. |
| Your estimated win probability (%) | 40 | Use the stated unit; retain available precision. |
Interpreting the Result
Multiply that winning cash amount by an independently entered win probability to estimate expected cash conversion. The expected percentage can exceed 100 when the modeled payout and probability imply it; that is not a guaranteed conversion rate. Offer caps, expiry and further wagering requirements are not modeled.
This applies only to stake-not-returned credits with a cashable profit. Eligibility, maximum odds, expiry, payout caps and further wagering requirements can change the actual offer.
Assumptions and Common Input Errors
The promotional credit itself is excluded from the winning cash return. Keep the same currency and settlement conditions throughout a scenario. Displayed currency amounts are rounded to two decimals; calculations retain precision unless cent allocation is explicitly described.
Saving and Revising a Scenario
A successful calculation is saved in this browser and can be restored on the next visit. Editing an input marks the prior result as out of date until you calculate again. A restored calculation is labeled with its saved time. Reset empties the numeric inputs and clears this calculator’s saved result.
Sources
Betfair: how decimal odds work; Betfair Free Bet FAQ (bonus stake is not returned). Expected value uses the independently entered probability and the zero-on-loss assumption; it is not a guaranteed cash conversion.
