Compare expected points from a two-point conversion and an extra-point kick using typical NFL rates you can change, or find the break-even two-point rate.

Typical NFL rate ≈ 48% (league average since 2015). Change it for your team or situation.

Typical NFL rate ≈ 94% since the 2015 move to a 33-yard kick.

Repeated tries assume independent attempts at the same success rate.

Optional settings

Two Point Conversion Expected-Points Formula

Under NFL scoring rules, a successful run or pass on a two-point try is worth two points, while a successful try kick is worth one point. If each attempt is treated as a success-or-failure event, its expected points are the scoring value multiplied by the estimated success probability.

EP₂ = 2p₂
EP₁ = p₁
  • EP2 is expected points from a two-point try.
  • p2 is the estimated probability of converting the two-point try.
  • EP1 is expected points from a one-point kick.
  • p1 is the estimated probability of making the kick.

Break-Even Two-Point Rate

Set the two expected-point expressions equal and solve for the two-point probability:

2p₂ = p₁
p2,break - even = (p₁) / (2)

If the estimated kick rate is 94%, the two-point try breaks even at 47%. A higher entered two-point rate produces more expected points per try; a lower rate produces fewer.

Illustrative Rates

Success-rate fields start at typical NFL rates of 48% for two-point tries and 94% for extra-point kicks. These are league averages, not team forecasts. The number of tries starts at 1.

Team offense, opponent defense, kicker, venue, weather, injuries, and play design can make the appropriate inputs materially different. Change both rates when better situation-specific estimates are available.

Multiple Attempts

For repeated tries with the same assumed probability, expected total points equal expected points per try multiplied by the number of tries. The calculator also reports the probability of at least one successful two-point try:

P(At Least One) = 1 - (1 - p₂)ⁿ

This repeated-attempt calculation assumes attempts are independent and use the same probability. Real attempts can be related because personnel, opponent adjustments, injuries, and score context change.

Example

At a 48% two-point success estimate, expected points are 2 times 0.48, or 0.96 per try. At a 94% kick estimate, expected points are 0.94. The arithmetic difference is 0.02 expected points per try in favor of the two-point branch under those exact assumptions.

Expected Points Are Not Win Probability

A higher average point return does not automatically maximize the chance of winning one game. Late-game score gaps can make one or two points have very different value. Clock, remaining possessions, timeouts, overtime format, opponent strength, and the distribution of future scores all matter to a complete win-probability decision.

This calculator deliberately stops at transparent expected points and break-even arithmetic. It does not label either choice as universally correct.

Assumptions and Limitations

  • Each try is modeled as an event in which the offense either scores its stated value or scores zero.
  • Rare defensive return scores, penalties, re-tries, and one-point safeties are excluded.
  • Entered probabilities are treated as known estimates even though they contain uncertainty.
  • Repeated tries are assumed independent with an unchanged success probability.
  • The comparison does not model score, clock, future possessions, overtime, or game win probability.

Browse the complete Football calculator collection or return to the Sports & Fitness Calculators hub.

Sources

National Football League. 2026 NFL Rulebook, Rule 11: Scoring.