Compare the expected points from a two-point try and a one-point kick, or calculate the two-point success rate that breaks even with an entered kick rate.
Two Point Conversion Expected-Points Formula
Under NFL scoring rules, a successful run or pass on a two-point try is worth two points, while a successful try kick is worth one point. If each attempt is treated as a success-or-failure event, its expected points are the scoring value multiplied by the estimated success probability.
- EP2 is expected points from a two-point try.
- p2 is the estimated probability of converting the two-point try.
- EP1 is expected points from a one-point kick.
- p1 is the estimated probability of making the kick.
Break-Even Two-Point Rate
Set the two expected-point expressions equal and solve for the two-point probability:
If the estimated kick rate is 94%, the two-point try breaks even at 47%. A higher entered two-point rate produces more expected points per try; a lower rate produces fewer.
Editable Default Rates
The 48% two-point and 94% kick values are rounded planning examples, not live forecasts. The two-point example is consistent with a published nflfastR summary covering 1,274 attempts from 2015 through 2024. The kick example reflects the roughly 94% post-2015 NFL context reported after the longer try kick was introduced.
Team offense, opponent defense, kicker, venue, weather, injuries, and play design can make the appropriate inputs materially different. Change both rates when better situation-specific estimates are available.
Multiple Attempts
For repeated tries with the same assumed probability, expected total points equal expected points per try multiplied by the number of tries. The calculator also reports the probability of at least one successful two-point try:
This repeated-attempt calculation assumes attempts are independent and use the same probability. Real attempts can be related because personnel, opponent adjustments, injuries, and score context change.
Example
At a 48% two-point success estimate, expected points are 2 times 0.48, or 0.96 per try. At a 94% kick estimate, expected points are 0.94. The arithmetic difference is 0.02 expected points per try in favor of the two-point branch under those exact assumptions.
Expected Points Are Not Win Probability
A higher average point return does not automatically maximize the chance of winning one game. Late-game score gaps can make one or two points have very different value. Clock, remaining possessions, timeouts, overtime format, opponent strength, and the distribution of future scores all matter to a complete win-probability decision.
This calculator deliberately stops at transparent expected points and break-even arithmetic. It does not label either choice as universally correct.
Assumptions and Limitations
- Each try is modeled as either the offense scores its stated value or scores zero.
- Rare defensive return scores, penalties, re-tries, and one-point safeties are excluded.
- Entered probabilities are treated as known estimates even though they contain uncertainty.
- Repeated tries are assumed independent with an unchanged success probability.
- The comparison does not model score, clock, future possessions, overtime, or game win probability.
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Sources
National Football League. 2026 NFL Rulebook, Rule 11: Scoring.
Goings D. Game-Theoretic Analysis of the NFL Playoff Overtime Coin Toss Decision: A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach. 2026. The reported 48% two-point rate is based on nflfastR data from 2015-2024.
National Football League. Goodell: Moving PATs Back Achieved What We Wanted. 2016.